The visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Moscow on 20 March illustrates a major problem for western imperialism: countries representing over 50% of the world’s population don’t support sanctions on Russia. The Xi-Putin talks were politically and economically significant, putting a dent in the relentless western propaganda that Russia is isolated and its economy on its last legs. Western imperialist powers continue with their war rhetoric as this inter-imperialist war is one they cannot now afford to lose. The arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) against Russian President Putin on 17 March is part of the propaganda battle. The message our ruling class wants to hammer home is that NATO and the ‘liberal democracies’ are united in their support for ‘democratic’ Ukraine against Russian ‘war criminals’, and that they are in it ‘for as long as it takes’. But behind this warmongering rhetoric there are inter-imperialist tensions bubbling between the US and major powers in the EU. BOB SHEPHERD reports.
War rhetoric and military escalation
The ICC arrest warrant is not about human rights but is, rather, politically motivated. Under President Trump, the US threatened sanctions against the ICC unless it dropped its investigations into war crime charges committed by US forces in Afghanistan. The fact that the US doesn’t recognise the ICC and is therefore unable to directly influence its decisions means that British imperialism was key to getting this result. The warrant was applied for by ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan, a British lawyer. Putin’s visit to the city of Mariupol in Ukraine the day after the warrant’s issue was Russia’s response.
In February leaders of the western imperialist powers gathered at the annual Munich Security Conference, where leaders of the imperialist nations discuss their common security concerns, primarily Russia and China. Russia, which had been attending the Conference since the collapse of the Soviet Union, was not invited.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delivered a speech which, while boasting of Britain’s military support for Ukraine, also expressed some unease over Russia’s continued military resilience. He laid out what had to come next:
‘We need a military strategy for Ukraine to gain a decisive advantage on the battlefield… To win the war, Ukraine needs more artillery, armoured vehicles and air defence. Together we’re delivering as much equipment in the next few months as in the whole of 2022. And together we must help Ukraine to shield its cities from Russian bombs and Iranian drones, that’s why the UK will be the first country to provide Ukraine with longer-range weapons. And it’s why we’re working with our allies to give Ukraine the most advanced air defence systems, and build the airforce they need to defend their nation.’
In the official Conference report, the current world situation was characterised as a clash between the world’s ‘liberal democracies’ and ‘autocratic revisionism’ ie between western imperialism and Russia and China.
‘China’s tacit support for Russia’s war, its military posturing to assert its own sphere of influence in East Asia, and its comprehensive efforts to promote an autocratic alternative to the liberal, rules-based international order epitomise the broader autocratic challenge.’
The report highlighted a major problem for the ‘liberal democracies’: the majority of the ‘global south’ does not go along with pressure to support NATO and isolate Russia. Not one African or Latin American country supported economic sanctions on Russia.
To mark one year since Russia’s invasion US President Biden delivered a speech in Poland which carried an underlying message for the western imperialist powers to stick together for what could be a long conflict:
‘As Ukraine continues to defend itself against the Russian onslaught and launch counter-offensives of its own, there will continue to be hard and very bitter days, victories and tragedies. But Ukraine is steeled for the fight ahead. And the United States, together with our Allies and partners, are going to continue to have Ukraine’s back as it defends itself.’
Ukraine and NATO are now encountering a shortage of ammunition for weapons already supplied. Armament companies in Europe produce in one year the amount of artillery shells Ukrainian forces use in three months. On 8 March EU Defence Ministers met to agree to ramp up armament production.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was clear:
‘The current rate of consumption compared to the current rate of production of ammunition is not sustainable. Therefore, we need to ramp up production…we need to ensure that Ukraine gets the ammunition it needs to defend itself…And we need to replenish our own stocks because so far, our support to Ukraine has mainly come from depleting NATO stocks. Of course, in the long run, that is not sustainable’.
Thierry Breton, the EU Commissioner for the Internal Market, said the EU arms industry had to shift to a ‘wartime economy model’ to prepare for a ‘high-intensity conflict’ with Russia for years to come.
The unity of the NATO countries in their proxy war against Russia seems solid on the surface, but rumbling away are issues that reflect differences in imperialist interests, particularly between the US and Germany.
US and EU inter-imperialist tensions
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has expressed these differences on a number of occasions. Last November, as reported in FRFI 291, he led a major German trade delegation to China. The continuing growth of German investment in China is directly opposed to the position of US imperialism, which is attempting to restrict China’s economic development by linking sanctions on Russia with what it terms ‘decoupling’ from China. Germany’s position is not surprising: China has been its largest trading partner for the past six years. In a speech at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos at the end of May 2022 Scholz outlined German imperialism’s position:
‘The bipolarity of the Cold War is just as much part of the past as the relatively brief phase when the US was the sole remaining global power even though the US will, of course, remain the dominant power factor in the world… I don’t give any credence to the reports of a new bipolarity between the US and China, either. Of course China is a global player… that does not mean that we need to isolate China, neither does it give rise to the claim of Chinese hegemony in Asia and beyond. Particularly since we are seeing new and ambitious powers emerging in Asia, Africa and Latin America…And then there is the EU, which is finally beginning to convert its geoeconomic weight into geopolitical influence.’
In another major WEF speech in January this year, Scholz highlighted the economic opportunities the war in Ukraine opened up for German and European industry, particularly in the development of renewable energy sources. He criticised the US for introducing tariffs against European trade, arguing against protectionism and calling for more international trade agreements.
‘Over all of this hangs a sword of Damocles: the danger of a new fragmentation of the world, of deglobalisation and decoupling… I am doing my utmost to ensure that the free trade agreements we have successfully negotiated…will soon be followed by new ones…we are also open to discuss a tariff agreement for the industrial sector with the US…But local content requirements for certain products must not result in discrimination against European businesses. Protectionism hinders competition and innovation and is detrimental to climate change mitigation. We, as EU members, are talking to our American friends about this.’
Germany sees the defeat of Russian imperialism in Ukraine as an opportunity to establish itself as the dominant imperialist power in Europe. It has used the war to massively increase its military budget and the size of its armed forces. Scholz hammered home the point:
‘In Berlin at the end of October, we worked with international experts to draw up a Marshall Plan for the long-term reconstruction of Ukraine…Private-sector capital will play a key role here. I know that many companies in Germany and beyond are very aware of the opportunities that a Ukrainian economic miracle could offer to them. Particularly as the country moves toward the European Union after the end of the war.’
Nord Stream
The tensions between US and German imperialism were played out over the construction and potential use of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, carrying natural gas between Russia and Germany, which the US actively opposed. The pipeline was bombed and destroyed on 26 September 2022. Blame was immediately directed at Russia, even though it clearly had nothing to gain from destroying its own pipeline.
Now the investigative journalist Seymour Hersh has exposed how the US planned the destruction of the pipelines in December 2021, before the Russian invasion. The bombs were planted in June 2022 and remotely detonated on 26 September. Hersh’s exposé was ignored by the mainstream media. Instead, in March a fantastical story appeared in the media that alleged the bombing was carried out by Ukrainian citizens who had hired a boat and then blown up the pipeline. This patent nonsense was published the week after Scholz flew to Washington for a private meeting with Biden after which no report of their discussions was published.
China, Ukraine and the Pacific
Following the hugely significant summit between Xi and Putin in Moscow, two joint statements were issued on expanding economic and political cooperation.
Russia’s trade with China has already increased massively over the past year as a result of Western economic sanctions. China’s imports from Russia increased by over 30% in January and February to $18.65bn compared to the same period last year, while exports to Russia jumped 19.8% to a total of $15bn. China is also importing record amounts of Russian oil. The role that China is playing in supporting the Russian economy, which corresponds to its own economic interests, is vital for Putin’s political survival.
On 24 February China presented its own peace proposals, ‘China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis’. The document contained implicit criticism of Russia’s invasion, but called for discussions on a European-wide security settlement, an end to the expansion of military blocs and opposition to unilateral sanctions.
China is using its economic power to influence political developments not just in relation to Ukraine but also in the Middle East. In talks at the beginning of March in Beijing, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to re-establish diplomatic relations. This is a major step and cuts across both US and Israeli attempts to isolate Iran.
China’s growing economic and political relationships and influence are seen by western imperialism as a threat to its interests and are driving the militarisation of the Indo-Pacific region. The visit of NATO head Jens Stoltenberg to South Korea and Japan at the end of January was part of western imperialism’s strategy of constraining China’s economic development through incorporating both countries into a wider NATO-led military alliance. The main message that Stoltenberg pushed was that ‘transatlantic and Indo-Pacific security is deeply interconnected’ by the ‘authoritarian pushback against the international rules-based order’ led by China and Russia.
FIGHT RACISM! FIGHT IMPERIALISM! 293 April/May 2023
