On 18 February the US unilaterally opened negotiations with Russia on a settlement of NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine. Notably absent from the table in Saudi Arabia were both Ukraine and the European imperialist powers. US imperialism is prepared to grant concessions to Russia at the expense of Ukraine and determined to cut European imperialism out of any deal. NATO’s proxy war against Russia has for three years been the sharpest expression of inter-imperialist rivalry, and the moves towards a settlement express growing conflict between US and European imperialism. US-brokered negotiations have started, with agreements on mutual ceasefires on energy installation and the demilitarisation of the Black Sea. In the meantime, the US administration is making it clear that it will be ending military support for Europe. GEORGE O’CONNELL reports.
Ukraine forced to the table
Russia has stubbornly occupied almost 20% of Ukrainian territory despite numerous Ukrainian campaigns to retake it. In this pessimistic context, US imperialism aims to strong-arm Ukraine into an injurious deal involving the complete subjugation of its remaining territory to US capital, handing over its vast natural resources through a ‘mineral deal’. This would create a US-controlled investment fund to facilitate new ventures extracting critical minerals, rare earth metals, and any other strategic or natural resources in Ukraine, including oil and gas, all of which are abundant. The terms of the deal would force Ukraine to contribute half of all such revenue it raises into the fund, initially proposed to total $500bn. This will be joined by US capital, with the profits ultimately going to US imperialism.
Ukraine’s malleability to US interests reflects the economic and political dependency of the comprador Ukrainian ruling class on US imperialism that the regime of President Volodymyr Zelensky has fostered. US imperialism is the largest single supplier of ‘aid’ to Ukraine, having allocated more than twice the total bilateral aid of the next single contributor (the EU Commission and Council). The US has shelled out five times more military aid than the next contributor (Germany), and it outstrips all EU member states combined plus the EU Commission and Council in allocated aid, €114.1bn vs €113.1bn.
Initially Zelensky opposed the deal, which would be no more than a Ukrainian fire sale. Thus, at a 28 February joint press conference in the White House, Zelensky was scolded by Trump and his Vice President JD Vance, a circus performance to demonstrate that such defiance would not be tolerated: it was to force Zelensky into taking the deal, which he did three days later. A US suspension of military deliveries to Ukraine on 3 March aimed to add to the pressure and push Ukraine into agreeing to a potential ceasefire and to pave the way for Ukrainian territorial concessions.
In a 16 February interview Democrat US Senator Chris Coons laid bare US imperialism’s interests, endorsing the deal as ‘an investment opportunity where American companies… would be involved in mining and processing, so that we can be independent of Chinese sources of these strategic minerals’. China dominates supply chains of critical minerals, and US imperialism wishes to plunder Ukraine’s resources to undermine China’s global monopoly in the production of batteries, electric vehicles, and other high-tech products which rely on such critical minerals.
European imperialism in turmoil
Leaders of Europe’s imperialist powers panicked at the attempts to cut them out of a settlement. They too have sunk enormous sums into supporting Ukraine against Russia, and have pledged even more, with the €113.1bn total bilateral aid allocated from EU member states and institutions only representing 56% of their total future commitments: US future commitments are at present only 4% more than what they have given so far.
On 17 February, 11 European leaders met at an emergency conference in Paris, five days after Trump announced the talks in Saudi Arabia. All the leaders of Europe’s major imperialist powers attended, including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. EU Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen set out its focus: ‘Europe’s security is at a turning point. Yes, it is about Ukraine – but it is also about us. We need an urgency mindset. We need a surge in defence. And we need both of them now’.
In bare terms: European imperialism is too weak – politically, economically, and indeed militarily – to assert its interests against an aggressive US imperialism. In areas such as minerals, and strategic resources such as oil and gas, control over which is vital, Europe has been pushed aside. Immediately after the outset of war in February 2022, sanctions on Russia cut off Europe from cheap Russian oil and gas and forced it into reliance on US imports, especially liquefied natural gas. Now it faces emerging from the war in Ukraine empty handed.
The crisis of European imperialism
European imperialism now seeks a continuation of the war or a settlement that would require European troops on the ground in Ukraine as a ‘peacekeeping’ force. Like the US, it seeks a return on investment for the vast sums it has funnelled into Ukraine’s war effort. It hides this reality behind rhetoric positioning itself as the sole champion of Ukrainian sovereignty opposite an indifferent Trump.
The tasks facing European imperialism are expressed in a 19 March EU Commission White Paper: European Defence – Readiness 2030. The report begins: ‘Europe faces an acute and growing threat… It is being coerced by external actors who are mobilising their resources and using technology more effectively to achieve their objectives. They are directly threatening our way of life and our ability to choose our own future’. China is named explicitly, but the menace from US imperialism is apparent.
It continues: ‘The moment has come for Europe to re-arm… A massive increase in European defence spending is needed’ to ‘deter armed aggression and secure our own future’. Europe’s rearmament, which is already underway, is a precondition for defending its interests as an independent imperialist bloc in the face of growing competition from US imperialism and China. European arms imports between 2020-24 were almost double 2015-19 levels. However, this meant the proportion of imports from the US increased from half to two-thirds. In the first two years of the war, Europe produced just 20% of its arms domestically. This critical over-reliance on arms from abroad, especially the US, can be used as a lever against Europe.
The White Paper calls for a boost in European military spending to €800bn within four years, a 145% increase on current levels. This would be achieved by member states averaging a 1.5 percentage point increase in military spending as a proportion of GDP, and a €150bn EU loan programme. 2021-24 saw only a 30% increase in EU member states’ military spending; such a profound increase reflects the urgency of the task facing European imperialism.
Europe’s major imperialist leaders will have to spearhead these tasks – or be replaced. On 23 February Germany’s incoming chancellor Friedrich Merz stated upon winning the elections: ‘My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA’. As Europe’s foremost industrial power, any boost to arms production hinges on the strength of German imperialism.
‘European freeloading’
US imperialism’s strategic approach towards Europe continues the shift away from cooperation favoured by dominant sections of the US and European ruling classes post-WW2. Under the Democrats, US imperialism sought to use this cooperation against China. Now, however, the sections of the US ruling class which have turned to Trump want to end US commitments to military support for Europe. At a security conference in Munich on 14 February Vice President JD Vance castigated European powers saying that the main threat facing the continent was not from Russia and China, but ‘from within’.
A month later, a security failure allowed a journalist from The Atlantic to participate in a Signal group set up to direct the US bombing campaign against Yemen and to record the frank disdain that senior figures in the US administration have for Europe. At issue is the claim that just 3% of US trade passes through the Red Sea and Suez Canal compared to 40% of Europe’s. In the chat, Vance is recorded as complaining that ‘I just hate bailing Europe out again,’ and Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth responding: ‘VP: I fully share your loathing of European freeloading. It’s PATHETIC.’ Yet it is unlikely that US will give up the strategic control of this trade route, one which it forced Britain and France to yield after the 1956 Suez War.
British imperialism mobilises for war
Historically, Britain’s position as a leading imperialist power hinged upon its ability to manoeuvre between US and European imperialism. This was undermined by Brexit where the sections of the British ruling class favouring a closer alliance with US imperialism prevailed. Now, the imperialist Labour government sees a fresh opportunity to exploit the divisions and position Britain at the head of European efforts to contain Russia. Britain also fears being cut out of a settlement.
On 16 February Keir Starmer proclaimed via The Telegraph his readiness to commit British troops to Ukraine. He proposes a ‘coalition of the willing’ of British and European troops enforcing a ceasefire or peace deal. Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey endorsed this as it would involve ‘Britain leading in Europe again, as we have done in the greatest moments of our nation’s history’. A few days later, Starmer pledged to increase arms spending to 2.5% of GDP from 2027, a clear demonstration of Labour’s commitment to defend British imperialism’s interests militarily. On 20 March, military chiefs from 30 European countries met in London to flesh out plans for the proposed ‘peacekeeping force’ which could be up to 30,000 strong. However, Russia’s negotiating position rules out any such force involving NATO powers, and three days later US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff dismissed the idea as a ‘posture and a pose’ based on a ‘simplistic’ notion of the British prime minister and other European leaders thinking ‘we have all got to be like Winston Churchill’.
On 5 March the Socialist Campaign Group MP and Labour Party member John McDonnell opened a Ukraine Solidarity Campaign (USC) protest outside the US embassy in London opposing Trump and calling for further arming of Ukraine against Russia. USC affiliates include the general secretaries of ASLEF and NUM and the PCS Deputy President; the University and College Union is an official supporter. A Guardian article by McDonnell was published the same day under the headline: ‘Advice to Keir Starmer: stop the fawning over Trump. Then help plan for a better world without him.’ Explicitly endorsing the ‘coalition of the willing’, McDonnell calls on Starmer to join Europe and claims there is ‘an immense diplomatic opportunity for Keir Starmer’s government [to use] our influence … to bring together all those who want to discuss and construct a world reordered without the malign influences of Trump and China.’ The Guardian laments that for Russia, ‘The bigger issue is not its short-term hope of taking more territory, but its long-term, maximalist ambition to control Ukraine.’ In its view, this means that NATO troops must be deployed in Ukraine, and that Starmer is right when he says, ‘It has to be a peace where the deal is defended.’
The growing reluctance of US imperialism to underwrite NATO and provide military support to Europe will increase the militarism of the major European imperialist powers. It is quite clear that the Labour government will represent the most outwardly aggressive sections of the ruling class as the crisis deepens. Real socialists reject Labour’s war plans. Imperialist hands off eastern Europe!
Fight Racism! Fight Imperialism! No 305, April/May 2025
