The war in Ukraine remains at a stalemate. Hopes for a Ukrainian breakthrough of the Russian defensive fortifications have now completely disappeared. Casualties on both sides are in the tens of thousands, and replacing them is requiring more extensive conscription. Despite the vast quantity of weaponry it has received from Western imperialist powers, Ukraine’s failures are beginning to raise questions as to whether some settlement needs to be sought even if there have to be some concessions to Russian imperialism. George O’connell reports.
Some are equating the ‘occupation’ of Ukraine with the occupation of Palestine. The analogy is false and vulgarly reduces this to a question of who ‘occupied’ whom. When Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022, this was an escalation of an already-existing conflict which began with the 2014 NATO-backed coup in Ukraine to expel Russian influence from the country. NATO’s eastward expansion forced Russia to fight for its own imperialist aims. The war is thus an expression of inter-imperialist rivalries in which Ukraine serves as a proxy for Western imperialism. Ukraine is not an oppressed nation. The occupation of Palestine is quite different. It is a product of imperialism. The Israeli state is an outpost of Western imperialism in the Middle East. The Palestinian people, in fighting for national liberation, are thus engaged in a struggle which opposes Western imperialism.
Ukraine’s dependence on US and European imperialism is demonstrated by its stalwart support for the Zionist state. On 7 October Ukrainian President Zelensky released a statement condemning the Palestinian resistance as ‘terror’, adding ‘Israel’s right to defence is indisputable’, thus endorsing Zionist terror against Gaza and the West Bank. On 9 October, addressing NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly, he stated: ‘The only difference is that there is a terrorist organisation that attacked Israel and here is a terrorist state that attacked Ukraine.’
Ukraine and Israel: agents of imperialism
Zelensky’s equation of Ukraine with Israel captures the core of the conflicts: both countries exist as agents for Western imperialism. On 2 November, Ukraine was the only state to abstain in the vote at the end of the annual UN debate on a motion condemning the US blockade of socialist Cuba. Ukraine was caught: on the one hand, it could not offend its US masters by voting with 187 other countries in favour of Cuba; on the other, to have voted alongside the US and Israel against the motion would have further damaged diplomatic relations with the vast majority of states already sceptical about the nature of its war with Russia.
The shift of attention from the war in Ukraine to the war on Gaza is problematic for Zelensky. On 4 November he admitted the Zionist assault is ‘taking away the focus’ from Ukraine. He told TIME magazine: ‘of course we lose out from the events in the Middle East’. Ukraine is now competing with the Israeli state for military aid. On 20 October The Telegraph reported tens of thousands of 155mm shells earmarked for Ukraine from the US were being diverted to Israel. A Ukrainian official told ABC News that US deliveries of such shells, which account for 60-70% of Ukraine’s overall supply, were down 30% since 7 October.
This reflects growing splits in the US ruling class over Ukraine. Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted on 3 October amidst tense debates over aid to Ukraine. The extreme right-wing populist Republican congressman Matt Gaetz, who put forward the motion to remove McCarthy, accused him of cutting a ‘secret deal’ with Biden for a further aid package to Ukraine. The deal in question was part of an emergency funding bill passed on 1 October to avoid government shutdown. A similar bill had to be passed on 14 November. The Republican Party is looking to exploit growing public opposition and ruling class tensions over the war in Ukraine and is hamstringing attempts to grant further US aid.
Ukraine’s failed counter-offensive
Zelensky cannot afford any loss of political and military support. On 1 November Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, acknowledged publicly that the conflict had reached a ‘stalemate’. The now five-month long counter-offensive has recovered just 17km of ground. Zaluzhny was quickly chastised by Zelensky’s office for spreading ‘panic’ amongst Ukraine’s imperialist backers. The Washington Post commented on 8 November that ‘after 20 months of all-out war, public fissures are starting to appear in Ukraine’s previously unshakable national unity. The issue of a stalemate is especially sensitive because Ukrainian officials fear a perceived deadlock could mean they will be pressured into negotiations with Russia that would force them to cede territory.’
Another source of concern is the ever-increasing number of Ukrainian casualties. Despite being routinely underreported by Western imperialist media, the scale is difficult to hide. In August The Wall Street Journal reported 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers have become amputees. The New York Times estimates 70,000 troops have been killed out of a total force of 500,000. Russian casualties are also very high: a British minister asserted that 120,000 have been killed and 180,000 wounded. These losses have required Russian imperialism to increase mobilisation efforts, both in September 2022 and again by increasing the maximum conscription age from January 2024.
Russia has been able to weather Western sanctions imposed since the invasion. Attempts to target its vast fossil fuel exports have been bypassed as other nations have stepped in. China now imports half of Russia’s crude oil, up from 30% in 2021, and India imports a further 30%, up from just 1% two years ago. Through the OPEC+ cartel of major oil producers, Russia has ensured production cuts and buoyant prices. Despite September being a yearly low for fossil fuel exports by volume, it was the second consecutive month in which revenue increased. Strengthening ties with nations viewed as hostile to US imperialism, most notably China, has allowed Russian imperialism to reduce the impact of Western sanctions.
FIGHT RACISM! FIGHT IMPERIALISM! 297 December 2023/January 2024
