The Trump administration’s apparently incoherent policy over the war in Ukraine reflects the different problems it faces in dealing with the EU, Russia and China while attempting to reverse US imperialism’s relative decline. Thus days before the 13 June Israeli attack on Iran, the US redirected 20,000 anti-drone missiles from Ukraine to the Middle East, much to the annoyance of Ukrainian President Zelensky. But by mid-July, Trump was offering to send air defence systems to Ukraine, leaving German Chancellor Merz to wonder how or whether these would replace EU systems. Until now just under half of all weapons supplies to Ukraine have come from the US, and most of the rest from European states.
Contradictory US interests
Trump’s insistence that the EU boosts its own arms production and expenditure to end its ‘freeloading’ on the US, has, together with the imposition of 30% tariffs, pushed Germany, France and Britain together to strengthen European material independence from the US. They want to defend Ukraine and expand the EU’s authority at the expense of Russia. US imperialism, however, wants to hobble this aim by making concessions to Russia. The conflict of interests between the US and Europe, and the difficulty in the US’s own balancing act, is clear.
Meanwhile, US imperialism is attempting aggressively to reassert control over global oil and natural resources to maintain the strength of the US dollar. Its immediate focus is therefore the oil-rich Middle East. It is giving free rein to the genocidal Zionist state in Gaza to use it as a mercenary against regional threats such as Iran.
More specifically, US imperialism has been unable to satisfy its initial aims after its years of stoking hostility provoked war between Russia and Ukraine in 2022. A Ukrainian military victory – the recovery of its entire territory – is impossible. EU territorial ambitions have been scuppered, but sanctions have not weakened Russia, so regime change or balkanisation has failed. Quite the contrary: the war has forced Russia closer to China in an alliance which challenges US hegemony. The Trump administration is therefore struggling to find a settlement to end a costly war which now offers little tangible gain.
Russia captured 556sq km of territory in June, the largest advance since November 2024. It has been continually advancing since Ukraine finally abandoned its failed ‘summer counteroffensive’ in November 2023. Ukraine’s imperialist backers have been unable to prevent this despite enormous expenditure, totalling €156.1bn and €114.6bn in allocated ‘aid’ from Europe and the US respectively as of May 2025. Russia has little incentive to agree to a pause in fighting or a peace settlement and has intensified drone and missile strikes on Ukraine.
The limited peace talks which have taken place since Trump took office in January 2025 include US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia in February, followed by direct Ukraine-Russian negotiations in Istanbul in May and June, the first since 2022, as well as the several phone calls between Trump and Russian President Putin. These have achieved little. Russia’s demands at the most recent talks in Istanbul on 2 June remained unchanged: a Ukrainian withdrawal from Eastern regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia – and, with Crimea, their cession to Russia. The US administration has indicated a willingness to grant Russia such territorial gains. However, Russia also demanded Ukraine’s demilitarisation, the end of foreign military assistance to Ukraine, and the lifting of Western sanctions. These demands would secure Russian imperialism an uncontested foothold into Eastern Europe and significant control of the Black Sea.
NATO imperialist powers will not go this far: any settlement has to preserve their Ukrainian proxy, so they cannot allow a Ukrainian defeat. So, whilst Trump had threatened to cut off arms supplies to force Ukraine to the negotiating table, the US will not risk a Ukrainian military collapse. On 14 July, Trump announced the dispatch of new weapons to Ukraine for the first time since he took office, in particular US Patriot missile defence systems. Under this new plan, the US would first sell the arms to European NATO members who would then deliver them to Ukraine. For US imperialism, this ‘outsources’ more of the cost of containing Russia to Europe whilst also ensuring additional buyers for US arms monopolies.
On 14 July Trump also theatrically announced a 50-day ultimatum for Russia to accept a peace-deal or face ‘very severe tariffs’. This would reportedly include 100% ‘secondary tariffs’ on countries who continue to trade with and purchase oil from Russia. The US is reverting to its past stance of ratcheting up economic and political pressure on Russia.
On 24-25 June NATO held its sixth summit since the start of the war. The summit announced that member states would now commit to spending 5% of GDP on ‘core defence requirements’ by 2035: 3.5% on arms spending and 1.5% on ‘protecting critical infrastructure, defending networks, ensuring civil preparedness and resilience’. The summit’s communique cited the motivation as the ‘long- term threat posed by Russia to Euro-Atlantic security’.
Attacking the working class
Such an enormous increase in arms spending will necessarily involve a relentless assault on the conditions of US and European working classes. NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte told The Telegraph on 9 June: ‘If you would not go to the 5 percent, … you could still have the NHS, … the pension system, etc, but you had better learn to speak Russian.’ This lays bare what is required: brutal austerity for the working class, supported ideologically by rampant chauvinism.
In Britain this process is being dutifully carried out by the Labour government as it seeks to boost arms spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 and then 3% by the end of the next parliament. Now it has a new target of 5% to meet. Labour is now under pressure from the British ruling class to speed up the current timescales and prepare to defend British capitalism’s global interests amidst intensifying inter-imperialist economic rivalry. It will not tolerate any obstacles, whether social spending, environmental commitments, or resistance.
No to NATO! Imperialist hands off Eastern Europe!
George O’Connell
Fight Racism! Fight Imperialism! 307, August/September 2025
