As winter approaches, NATO’s proxy war against imperialist Russia remains in stalemate. The faltering Ukrainian counter-offensive and the consequent scale of casualties are creating a degree of nervousness amongst Ukraine’s imperialist backers. GEORGE O’CONNELL reports.
Faltering offensive
Four months of Ukraine’s counter-offensive has seen limited territorial gains: 460km2 in total according to Washington think-tank Institute for the Study of War, less than 0.1% of Ukraine’s land area. This has been at the cost of massive Ukrainian losses. US officials estimate some 200,000 Ukrainian and 300,000 Russian dead and wounded since the war started; whatever truth this contains it is striking when compared with Ukraine’s total military personnel of 500,000. NATO knew this would be the case: leaked Pentagon documents from early February admit that the offensive would result in only ‘modest territorial gains’. This is notwithstanding the almost quarter of a trillion dollars in aid sent to Ukraine since the invasion, making it the third-highest funded military in the world.
Ukraine’s press gangs
Ukrainian desperation for manpower is evidenced by countless reports of Ukrainian men being forced into conscription by the state body responsible for mobilisation. On 15 August The Guardian reported: ‘Crews of mobilisation officers roam the streets and sometimes go door to door to hand out notices. Viral videos show officers bundling men into vans to deposit them at enlistment offices.’ They are then given a few weeks of training before being shipped to the front lines. On 30 August President Zelensky ordered a full review of all mobilisation exemptions following reports of medical commissions taking hefty bribes to exempt people.
This desperation also translates into increasing Ukrainian attempts to escalate the conflict. On 13 September Ukraine launched an attack on the Sevastopol shipyard in Crimea, damaging two military vessels. This was followed on 22 September by a missile strike on the city’s Black Sea Fleet headquarters, claiming to have killed commander of the fleet Admiral Viktor Sokolov along with 33 other officers. He has made several media appearances since. These were the first such attacks on Crimea, which Russia has regarded as its territory since 2014. British Storm Shadow missiles were employed; these were provided in May after reassurances they would only be used within Ukraine’s borders.
NATO’s strategy
The concern at Ukrainian military failure within sections of the British ruling class has led to The Telegraph running articles provocatively titled: ‘Ukraine and the West are facing a devastating defeat’ (18 July), and ‘Ukraine’s counter-offensive is stalling. The West must prepare for humiliation’ (10 September). The paper, regarded as a mouthpiece for British forces, has argued for even more weapons to Ukraine to ensure a Russian defeat. The Financial Times shares the sentiment: ‘Ukraine cannot win against Russia now, but victory by 2025 is possible’ (3 September). This requires countries like Britain to maintain a constant stream of weapons to Ukraine, something questioned by then British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace at July’s NATO summit, when he quipped ‘we are not Amazon’ in relation to Ukrainian demands for yet more munitions.
However, NATO’s aims are to provide just enough weapons to maintain Ukraine’s ability to fight and to keep Russia tied into a costly war. US President Biden’s decision on 23 September to provide long-range missile after months of Ukrainian requests satisfies these aims, allowing them to strike strategic Russian targets up to 300km away with minimal loss of manpower. This follows his speech to the UN General Assembly on 19 September urging world leaders to oppose ‘early’ peace talks; these would involve a trade-off on some Western sanctions on Russia and undermine the aim of strangling the Russian economy.
A falling out
Ukraine’s most resolute backers are losing confidence – hence a diplomatic row between Ukraine and neighbouring EU states, especially Poland, over grain. Prior to the invasion, Ukraine was one of the world’s largest grain producers, with 90% of exports going through the Black Sea. Now, following the collapse of the UN Grain Deal in July, the grain cannot be shipped. With land exports the only option, Ukraine threatens to flood neighbouring states’ markets and so slash EU grain prices. To prevent this, the EU banned the import of Ukrainian grain to neighbouring EU states. However, this ruling expired on 15 September and Poland is now threatening to impose its own ban in violation of EU law to appease disgruntled farmers. Until now the Polish government had been a staunch supporter of Ukraine, but on 18 September it announced it would end financial support for its one million Ukrainian refugees in 2024, and days later that it would cease supplying weapons to Ukraine.
A house divided
Zelensky’s visit to Washington on 21 September was met with a frosty reception. A far cry from his last visit in December 2022, he was received against a backdrop of tense debates within the Republican majority House of Representatives, of which aid to Ukraine was one. At stake is a further $24bn aid package to Ukraine, half of the $50bn secured on his previous visit. Days before his arrival, Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy asked: ‘Where’s the accountability on the money we’ve already spent? What is the plan for victory? I think that’s what the American public wants to know.’ McCarthy refused Zelensky’s request to address Congress, again a departure from his previous visit.
In the US, the Republican Party is looking to exploit growing discontent amongst the electorate about the seemingly endless war, and to appeal to chauvinist opposition to foreign aid. An August CNN poll revealed that a majority (55%) of the US population opposes further Congressional funding to Ukraine. And indeed, as we go to press, US Congress and the Senate have passed a bill on short-term funding for federal spending, avoiding a government shutdown, which does not include any US foreign aid for Ukraine. Former president Donald Trump has pledged to end the war within 24 hours of being re-elected. Zelensky is clearly perceived as an obstacle to such an approach, hence Trump’s comments in July about forcing Zelensky to the negotiating table: ‘I would tell Zelensky, no more. You got to make a deal.’
These debates coincided with renewed publicity about widespread corruption within Ukraine’s political system. In September 2021, a EU report detailed what it called ‘grand corruption’ in the Ukrainian state. Ukrainian oligarchs have ‘significant leverage over the legislative system’, ‘heavily influence the judicial system’, and ‘wield control over the government by requiring their candidates be appointed to key posts’. The report adds ‘petty corruption is widespread, and is accepted as almost inevitable’, and ‘tens of billions of dollars are lost annually’ to corruption. The Ukrainian government is making a show of dealing with this, dismissing all six deputy defence ministers ahead of Zelensky’s visit following reports of corruption in procurement within the ministry. Leading billionaire oligarch and former state governor Ihor Kolomoiskyi was arrested on corruption charges on 2 September. Ukraine is keen to be palatable to its imperialist backers. The EU regards Ukrainian corruption as a barrier to membership, hence €5.6bn provided by the EU between 2014 and 2022 for anti-corruption programmes which have clearly had limited impact.
Imperialism mobilises for war
The war in Ukraine remains the sharpest expression of intensifying inter-imperialist rivalry, as a NATO proxy war, led de facto by the US, against imperialist rival Russia. A 16 September press conference by the NATO Military Committee chair sets this out: ‘A new era of collective defence is upon us. And the NATO Military Authorities have been preparing for this new era for years.’ The press conference announced Steadfast Defender: the largest NATO military drill since the Cold War. To take place in 2024, it will involve 41,000 troops across 32 countries and rehearse manoeuvres on NATO soil against an enemy modelled on a coalition led by Russia.
At the same time the US is trying to consolidate its control over the Pacific so as to encircle China. On 25 September Biden hosted a convention of 18 Pacific Island nations: creating and maintaining military agreements with these countries is seen as crucial. In a July committee hearing on the Compacts of Free Association – longstanding agreements with Micronesia, Palau and the Marshall Islands – a US official said: ‘[The compact gives us] exclusive access: we have the ability to deny foreign military access and their ability to operate in the exclusive economic zones of the freely associated states. This is critically important at a time when China is increasingly active and aggressive throughout the Indo-Pacific.’ Whilst the three islands in question are tiny, the area of ‘exclusive access’ is the size of the US.
The rest of the world watches on
Most countries outside Europe and the US have little if any interest in the war over Ukraine; as David Miliband, former contender for the Labour leadership had to acknowledge in April: ‘The gap between the West and the rest goes beyond the rights and wrongs of the war. Instead, it is the product of deep frustration — anger, in truth — about the Western-led mismanagement of globalisation since the end of the Cold War. From this perspective, the concerted Western response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has thrown into sharp relief the occasions when the West violated its own rules.’
At the UN General Assembly on 19-26 September, Zelensky’s address was met with numerous empty seats. The G20 summit on 9-10 September, which included Russia, China and a number of developing countries as well as the leading NATO imperialist powers, reversed its previous one-sided condemnation of Russian aggression, adopting instead a neutral statement on the conflict. This was much to the chagrin of US, EU and British diplomats – but they would have risked disintegration of the G20 if they had tried to block it.
Britain – loyal attack dog
Unlike the US, the British ruling class is united on the war in Ukraine, and its representatives are unified in vehement attacks on Russia and China. Labour Party leader Keir Starmer accused Prime Minister Sunak of ‘failing to guard Britain against hostile actors’ following the arrest of a British parliamentary researcher accused of spying for China. Sunak was forced to stress that he was ‘emphatic’ with Chinese Premier Li Qiang at the G20 Summit that ‘actions which seek to undermine British democracy will never be tolerated’.
At its 2023 Congress, 10-13 September, the TUC backed a motion that ‘unequivocally condemns Russia’s illegal, aggressive invasion of Ukraine’, calling for further British aid to Ukraine, and demanding ‘the immediate withdrawal of Russian forces from all Ukrainian territories occupied since 2014’. John McDonnell, shadow chancellor under Corbyn, spoke at a fringe meeting entitled ‘why we must stand with Ukraine’. Labour MPs Ian Lavery and Nadia Whittome both released videos urging delegates to support the motion. They with McDonnell were among 11 ‘left’ Labour MPs who signed a Stop the War statement in February 2022 which contained mild criticism of NATO’s role. All 11 cowardly MPs immediately removed their signatures when Starmer threatened them with the withdrawal of the Labour whip. The ruling class will be happy with the bipartisan support Labour is giving to the government, and the ruthlessness with which Starmer is dealing with any dissent.
No to British imperialist warmongering! No to NATO imperialism!
FIGHT RACISM! FIGHT IMPERIALISM! 296 October/November 2023
