The Turkish state is attempting to buttress its position by exploiting the growing inter-imperialist rivalry expressed by the Ukraine conflict. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), has ruled since 2003 and is determined to remain in power despite the creeping immiseration of large sections of the population, with Turkey’s official annual inflation rate reaching 78.6% in June, the highest in 24 years.
Since 2018, the exchange rate of the Turkish lira (TL) to the US dollar has fallen from around 5:1 to 20:1, making Turkey’s $466bn foreign debt increasingly unpayable and imports more costly. Turkey’s national debt as a percentage of GDP rose from 28% in 2016 to 42% in 2021. Inflation has accelerated following the Covid-19 pandemic and global energy crisis. The independent group of Turkish economists ENAG puts the real annual inflation figure for June 2022 at 175%.
Turkey’s central bank vexed foreign lenders and economists by cutting its interest rate, despite rising inflation, three times from 19% in August 2021 to 14% in November, where it has stayed. An increase of 50% on the minimum wage, paid to around 40% of the workforce, was announced in December 2021, and a government scheme to back lira deposits strengthened the currency temporarily, but living standards have slid back further since then. A poll in May 2022 put Erdogan’s approval rating at 33.2%, more than ten points behind opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. With presidential elections due no later than June 2023 – the centenary of the founding of the Turkish republic – the government is battling to boost Erdogan’s popularity and call elections at an opportune moment. A further increase to the minimum wage of 30% on 1 July was an attempt to divert the potential resistance of workers. On 19 July 2022, the government announced a 20-fold increase in the level of student loans and scholarships; interest on more than three million student loans, previously pegged to the consumer price index, was reduced to 0%, effectively writing off TL26bn of debt. Though Erdogan claims otherwise, these gambles are based more on political calculation than an economic plan.
Erdogan and his supporters ultimately seek to defend the rotten capitalist system through a combination of populism, deepening repression, investing ever greater powers in Erdogan’s office, and military aggression to regain territories of the former Ottoman empire. However, Turkey is still dependent on support from the imperialist powers. The outbreak of war in eastern Europe presents opportunities in this regard. By positioning itself between warring parties, Turkey can extract certain concessions. Ahead of the Russian invasion, Turkey sold Bayraktar TB2 armed drones to Ukraine. Turkey closed the Bosphorus strait between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean to Russian warships in February, a largely symbolic act but a signal that it was not remaining passive. On 5 July, following Ukrainian demands, Turkey seized the Zhibek Zholy, a Russian-flagged ship carrying 7,000 tonnes of grain out of Berdiansk, a Russian-controlled port in Ukraine. Ukraine claimed Russia was stealing resources from occupied territory; administrators in the Russian-controlled regions claim they are working with local farmers to release grain onto the global market. Turkey hosted talks with Ukraine, Russia and the UN and on 22 July they signed a deal to coordinate exports of millions of tonnes of stranded grain, placing Turkey in the role of weapons inspector on grain ships – a diplomatic coup.
Turkey has also exploited its membership of NATO to secure greater international backing for its war on the Kurds. According to a trilateral memorandum published on 28 June, Turkey would approve Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO. In return the two Scandinavian countries would lift their bans on arms sales to Turkey, and ‘extend their full support to Turkey against threats to its national security…Finland and Sweden will not provide support to YPG/PYD [Kurdish groups defending their territory in northern Syria]’. Sweden and Finland have previously given refuge to individuals associated with the YPG/PYD but could soon start allowing their extraditions to Turkey; the latter is seeking the extradition of 33 Kurdish activists who would undoubtedly face torture.
The AKP is once again exploiting refugees to pursue its expansionist ambitions. Turkey hosts at least four million refugees, more than any other country in the world; 3.7 million are from Syria. They have no access to healthcare, education or decent housing. Syrians face racism from the Turkish state and its supporters and are being blamed for economic problems. Fascist groups in Turkey have attacked Syrian businesses; AKP’s partner the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), affiliated with the Grey Wolves fascist group, supports ‘repatriation’, and without the MHP Erdogan would have lost the 2019 election and could lose the next one. In May, the government announced plans to ‘repatriate’ a quarter of all Syrian refugees to Idlib, an active warzone held by Turkish-backed rebels in northwest Syria, where millions of displaced people already reside. Turkey has constructed almost 60,000 homes for 50,000 families there since 2016. The new plans would see the construction of a further 250,000 homes, as well as infrastructure connecting cities and towns in the region. This is not humanitarianism, but a settler project designed to strengthen the position of Turkish-backed rebel forces and replace the Kurdish population. For now, it is nominally premised on the ‘voluntary return’ of Syrians, but conditions in Turkey are growing more hostile by the week.
In the pursuit of its national interests, Turkey is preparing for renewed military action against the Kurds in Syria. On 19 July Iran hosted a summit with Russia and Turkey. This was the first meeting between Russian president Vladimir Putin and the head of a NATO member state since the start of the war. Russia and Iran are allies of the Syrian government and Turkey requires their cooperation for its war against the Kurds in Syrian territory. In 2019, Turkey’s ‘Operation Peace Spring’ pushed the YPG 30km back from Turkey’s border. Russia and Iran are strongly opposed to a new Turkish offensive. Yet the deepening crisis in Turkey lies behind Erdogan’s ominous threat to take unpredictable and potentially destabilising action: ‘we will come down against them suddenly one night’.
Will Jones
FIGHT RACISM! FIGHT IMPERIALISM! 289 August/September 2022
