The Turkish state is set to ban Turkey’s third largest political party, the People’s Democratic Party (HDP), which is backed by the Kurdish population. The Supreme Court opened investigations into alleged HDP links with terrorism and on 17 March 2021 the chief public prosecutor submitted a lawsuit for the closure of the HDP. In the June 2018 elections the HDP won 11.7% of the votes and 67 parliamentary seats. Currently, eight former HDP MPs are in gaol. The Turkish state is defying an order from European Court of Human Rights to free former HDP co-leader Selahattin Demirtas, imprisoned since November 2016, along with co-chair, Figen Yuksekdag. The HDP is accused of breaking democratic and universal laws, colluding with terrorists, and seeking to destroy the integrity of the Turkish state. HDP mayors have been imprisoned by the score and replaced with state appointees. Over 6,000 HDP members have been gaoled. On 15 February 2021, 700 HDP members and supporters were arrested and charged with terrorism-related offences. Since President Erdogan became leader of Turkey in 2003 the country’s prison population has risen five-fold to in excess of 282,000. The Supreme Court is set to codify what has become the government’s de facto policy. Current HDP co-chair Pervin Buldan said, ‘This is a coup to usurp the will of the people.’
On 2 March 2021, Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) said, ‘If Turkey is a state of law, the closure of the HDP is urgent and crucial.’ Bahceli added ‘It does not matter what the US and EU think.’ The MHP is a governing partner of Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). It is a fascist organisation, historically tied to the terrorist Grey Wolves. When the US State Department and the European Union criticised the proposed banning of the HDP, the Turkish government responded that this amounted to foreign interference in the Turkish independent judiciary. Turkey’s courts have been purged of all but supporters of Erdogan and the AKP.
On the same day that the prosecutor submitted the lawsuit to ban the HDP, the Party’s MP Omer Farak Gergerlioglu had his seat and parliamentary immunity revoked by a court ruling. Gergerlioglu and other MPs refused to leave parliament. On 21 March, he was seized, attacked, arrested by police and dragged out of the building, accused of spreading terrorist propaganda and insulting the Turkish nation. If the HDP is banned there will be an escalation of arrests and imprisonments of opponents to the Erdogan regime. The Turkish state is repeating the tactic it used in the early 1990s, when Kurdish MPs were elected (Leyla Zana, Hatip Dicle, Orhan Dogan and Selim Sadak), their parties banned and they themselves imprisoned (see The New Warlords, Larkin Publications for a contribution by Hatip Dicle).
The utterly reactionary character of the Turkish government was demonstrated against women on 20 March when it withdrew from the Istanbul Convention, the Council of Europe treaty to combat violence against women, to which it has been a signatory since 2012. A government minister explained that Turkey’s judicial system was ‘strong enough’ to implement any policies needed. The World Health Organisation states that 38% of women in Turkey have been subjected to physical and/or sexual violence, compared with 25% in Europe. The Convention is criticised by Turkey’s government supporters for promoting gender equality and homosexuality because it opposes discrimination on grounds of sexual orientation. The government decision was greeted with protests, led by women, in Istanbul and other Turkish cities. Turkey’s LGBT+ community are also under threat. As many as three women are murdered each day in Turkey.
Erdogan and his government can only inflict such repression on women, Kurds and opponents because they have the backing of US, European and British imperialism; the imperialists support Turkey as a bulwark for the post-World War One status quo, which the Kurds, with their demands for rights and self-determination, are viewed as challenging.
While the political centres of Washington, Brussels and Whitehall may be embarrassed by Erdogan, they stand by him, but Wall Street and the City of London are not loyal. On 20 March, Erdogan dismissed Turkey’s third central bank governor in two years. Naci Agbal was appointed in November 2020. He raised interest rates by 6.75% and then added another 2% to try and stop the Turkish lira falling and inflation rising. The lira has lost half its value since 2018, as it falls so import prices rise and savers and investors withdraw capital. Consumer price inflation is about 16%; as the economy deteriorates standards of living drop and Erdogan’s and the AKP’s popularity dwindles. Erdogan appointed an AKP loyalist to take over as bank governor. Erdogan opposes higher interest rates as they squeeze the economic growth on which his popularity grew. On the first day of currency trading after the new governor’s appointment the lira dived another 14% and Turkey’s stock market dropped.
Turkey requires approximately $250bn to repay maturing external debt and cover its current account deficit in the next 12 months. Over the past year, the central bank has spent $100bn of its foreign currency reserves, unsuccessfully trying to stop the lira’s slide – they are almost exhausted. It needs foreign money. After Agbal’s dismissal one City investment banker remarked that investors ‘see Erdogan as too unpredictable and they don’t trust him. The number who would be prepared to take a punt now is close to zero’. Holders of Turkish lira denominated assets have panicked and are selling them off. Over half of Turkey’s banks’ deposits are in dollars, euros and gold, as savers hedge against inflation and move out of lira. This money is deserting Turkey. On 24 March Erdogan appealed to citizens to invest any foreign currency and gold they may have at home in ‘various financial instruments to benefit our economy’. If the state acts to impose capital controls to stop currency flight it will provoke outrage among ruling classes and Turkey’s middle class. Erdogan behaves like a swaggering autocrat but the crisis of confidence in the Turkish lira and his blatant attack on the HDP and democracy is becoming a political crisis for the Turkish government.
Trevor Rayne
