The conditions for people in the Six Counties in the north of Ireland are increasingly intolerable. The Six Counties has the longest hospital waiting times in the UK. Half of people are already in fuel poverty, even before the price cap rises again on 1 October. Loyalists can no longer depend on material privileges historically given to them by British imperialism. The 2021 census revealed there are now more Catholics than Protestants in the Six Counties. Loyalists express frustration at their deteriorating position through opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol and have pushed the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to refuse to take up its seats in the power sharing executive until Britain has made progress in getting rid of the Protocol.
The Northern Ireland Protocol was the part of Britain’s Brexit treaty with the European Union (EU) that created an economic border between the Six Counties and Britain. Goods travelling between the two must be checked at ports in Belfast. Since the May 2022 election, when Sinn Fein became the first nationalist party to win a majority in the Northern Ireland statelet’s 101-year history, the Executive Assembly has been unable to convene because of the DUP’s refusal to take its seats in Stormont. If the DUP does not take up its seats by 28 October – 24 weeks after the Assembly’s first attempt to convene after the election – then the Assembly will be dissolved and a new election will be called.
There is no assurance Britain will have made progress on overriding the Protocol by the end of October. The election of Liz Truss as leader of the Conservative Party, and therefore Prime Minister of Britain and the occupied north of Ireland, did not resolve the contradiction at the heart of Britain’s Brexit policy. British imperialism remains as divided as ever over its way forward. Sections of the ruling political class still hold on to the history of British Empire as evidence that Britain can be an independent global power and reject cooperation with the EU. The sections of the British ruling class more grounded in reality understand continued provoking of the EU will be a disaster for British capitalism.
Truss has been branded the ‘iron weathercock’ in the French media for her changing views on Brexit. In the run-up to the referendum she was in the ‘Remain’ camp, but after 70% of Tory constituencies voted for Brexit, Truss understood any leadership aspirations depended on her becoming a Brexiteer. As Foreign Secretary under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Truss put forward the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill that would override Britain’s international Brexit Agreement with the EU. She was widely expected to trigger Article 16 of the Agreement when she got into number 10. Triggering Article 16 would essentially put an end to exploring legal routes to resolve Protocol issues and escalate the conflict with the EU.
Truss’ leadership bid relied on the backing of the European Research Group (ERG), the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory Party. She had no choice but to appoint two of her most outspoken supporters, ERG’s Suella Braverman and Jacob Rees Mogg, to her cabinet. Braverman was praised by former UKIP leader Nigel Farage for her commitment to taking Britain out of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR). Mogg is an out-of-touch bigot, anti-abortion under any circumstances and decries ‘climate alarmism’. Both were instrumental in pushing the Johnson administration to take unilateral action to replace the Protocol.
But in her first few days as Prime Minister, Truss has been forced to take a more conciliatory approach. She has dropped the Bill of Rights, introduced to entrench the primacy of British law over rulings from the ECHR. The ECHR is an obstacle to the government moving forward with its racist Rwanda deportation plan, but rulings from the ECHR are enshrined within the Good Friday Agreement.
Neither Truss’ first speech as leader of the Tory Party on 5 September, nor her first speech as Prime Minister on 6 September mentioned Ireland or the Protocol – much to the dismay of Loyalists. However, the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill is still making its way through the House of Lords and, if it becomes law, will escalate the conflict with the EU. It is in Britain’s best interest to keep delaying the question it has no answer to: should it throw out the Protocol to appease the Loyalists, whom it needs to maintain British imperialism in Ireland, provoking a trade war with the EU and economic consequences from the US? Or should it implement the Protocol and cooperate with the EU in the interests of British capitalism and risk rebellion from the Loyalists?
Across England, Scotland, Wales and the north of Ireland there has been an average 16.6% contraction in individual purchasing power, taking into consideration rising rents and bills as well as inflation, between June 2021 and June 2022. The Six Counties has experienced the sharpest contraction: 32.3%. Life under British imperialism is becoming unbearable for large swathes of the population.
For the DUP, in allowing itself to be pushed rightward to maintain the layer of support from Loyalists, it has alienated itself from other sections of Unionism. If it doesn’t return to power sharing, the DUP risks being pushed out of government in a new election, but if it does take up its seats before Britain has thrown out the Protocol, it risks undermining its base of support.
Ria Aibhilin
