In the Six Counties in the north of Ireland there has been no government for the past nine months as Loyalists pressure the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to boycott Stormont until the Northern Ireland Protocol is thrown out. The Protocol was agreed as part of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement between Britain and the European Union (EU), but the Johnson administration, egged on by the European Research Group (ERG) wing of the Tory Party, refused to implement it. Now, to the dismay of the Loyalists, representatives of Britain and the EU have reported progress in talks to resolve issues related to the Protocol.
Under the Brexit Agreement Britain left the EU single market. Though the Six Counties also left the EU, it has remained part of the EU single market as agreed in the Protocol. Businesses in the north of Ireland have the advantage of unfettered access to both the European and British single markets, but the Loyalists are utterly opposed to any kind of separation from Britain. The Loyalists have blocked the Northern Ireland Assembly from convening since February when the DUP walked out and refused to take its seats until the Protocol is removed.
New Stormont elections were due to be called by 28 October 2022, but Britain has now delayed them until April 2023 so negotiations with the EU on the Protocol can continue uninterrupted. Rishi Sunak becoming Prime Minister has seen a shift in Britain’s relations with the EU. Compared to his two predecessors, Sunak – himself a Brexiteer – is a step forward for the British ruling class because he understands the demands of British capital will not be met by provoking the EU into a trade war or jeopardising relations with the US.
The embarrassment of the Liz Truss government has given Sunak space to tell Tory Party MPs they must ‘unite or die’. The ERG had its chance with Johnson as its spokesperson, and then Truss. Both were forced to leave the posts of Prime Minister and leader of the Tory Party. But there are still seven members of the ERG in Sunak’s Cabinet, in posts including Foreign Secretary and Home Secretary. And Britain’s dilemma in how to meet the opposing wants of the EU and the Loyalists has not disappeared.
The Loyalists are frustrated at their deteriorating position, expressed as opposition to the Protocol. They are no longer guaranteed relative privileges such as better access to healthcare and education compared to the nationalist population in the Six Counties and the working class in the 26 Counties. The Six Counties routinely has the worst outcomes in the United Kingdom, affecting both the nationalist and Loyalist populations. It has the highest proportion of the population living in fuel poverty: the Living Costs and Food Survey estimates that by January 2023 72% of people in the Six Counties will be in fuel poverty against an average of 57% across the United Kingdom.
It has the longest hospital waiting times, with one in three people waiting for treatment on the NHS compared to one in eight in England. The crisis in healthcare is reaching new depths. A major incident was declared on Saturday 12 November as it had become ‘unsafe’ for Antrim Area Hospital’s A&E to take any new admissions. Several other hospitals in the Six Counties have announced extreme pressures.
The DUP has little space for manoeuvre on what will be sellable to its electorate. Recent events have only reinforced the Loyalists’ fears that they face an existential threat. The 2021 census results were released with headlines that there are now, for the first time in the statelet’s 101-year history, more Catholics than Protestants. What is more alarming for the Loyalists is the change in national identity. In 2011 40% of people in the north of Ireland identified as ‘British only’, 25% as ‘Irish only’ and 21% as ‘Northern Irish only’. The 2021 census shows that the number of people identifying as ‘British only’ has fallen by eight-percentage points (to 32%) and is only three-percentage points more than those identifying as ‘Irish only’ (29%). Those identifying as ‘Northern Irish only’ also fell (to 20%).
Loyalist fears of a united Ireland in which they would hold no superior position were worsened with the calls backed by Sinn Fein that, in the absence of government, the Six Counties should not return to direct-rule from London, but should instead be under joint authority from London and Dublin. The Loyalist paramilitary groups warned of ‘an unprecedented reaction’ if that were to happen and continue to threaten street violence if the Protocol is not removed. The paramilitaries warned the DUP ‘there can be no weakening or “backsliding” on the clear and unambiguous commitments made to our community in relation to the Protocol.’
As negotiations between Britain and the EU continue, British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly has played down claims from Britain’s Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Chris Heaton-Harris, that a deal is likely by the start of 2023. Britain’s legislation to unilaterally override parts of the Protocol continues to make its way through Parliament. Britain remains stuck: as it advances in addressing its needs with Europe, it aggravates the Loyalists. And when it goes the other way and plays to the needs of Loyalists, Britain aggravates the EU.
The ERG is assuring Loyalists all EU law in the Six Counties will end. The Loyalists should not hold their breath. Ending all EU law would mean removing the north of Ireland from the EU single market. If the Six Counties is not part of the EU single market, checks on the transportation of goods between Britain and the EU would have to take place between the Six Counties and 26 Counties of Ireland. This would create a hard border in Ireland, which the EU and US have ruled out happening. Even if there are significant breakthroughs in negotiations to minimise checks on goods between Britain and the Six Counties and to reduce or remove the role of the European Court of Justice in overseeing this process, the Loyalists have said they will accept nothing that creates any economic, legal or political separation from Britain.
Ria Aibhilin
FIGHT RACISM! FIGHT IMPERIALISM! 291 December 2022/January 2023
