Britain is experiencing its third wave of Covid-19 infections in six months, with an estimated one in 17 people, over 3.8 million in Britain and the north of Ireland, infected by 18 July. That’s almost 6% of the population. Protective public health measures have been completely abandoned in favour of ‘living with Covid’. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO) allowing such a high level of virus transmission is ‘playing with fire’.
Omicron is deadly not mild
Despite mendacious rhetoric that Omicron was ‘mild’, we will soon have recorded more deaths in the Omicron era (six months so far: 22,787 deaths from 8 January to 1 July 2022) than in the Delta era (seven months: 23,512 deaths from 11 June 2021 to 7 January 2022). About 1,800 people are being hospitalised daily. Since ‘Freedom Day’ (19 July 2021) over 39,000 people have died with Covid-19 on their death certificates. Although vaccinations have reduced the levels of severe disease and deaths relative to infection (an estimated 350,000 cases per day), there have still been over 200,000 deaths from Covid-19 in the UK. Almost 50,000 of these deaths have occurred since vaccines were widely available. There is massive disruption to the NHS, transport networks and the economy as a whole. The burden of disease and death is much higher when those dying for lack of access to healthcare is factored in. Over two million people live with Long Covid – 400,000 of them for over two years. 619,000 people with Long Covid were infected when the ‘mild’ Omicron was dominant. Long Covid affects multiple organs in the body with over 200 reported symptoms: pulmonary, cardiovascular blood disorders, diabetes, fatigue, gastrointestinal, kidney, mental health, musculoskeletal, and neurologic disorders. Living with Covid is a disaster.
Ignoring scientific advice
There is resistance from the British government and its scientific spokespeople to reinstating any public health measures. The WHO on 12 July 2022 called for masks, ventilation and social distancing to be reinstated globally. It said the pandemic was ‘nowhere near over’. On 19 July 2022, Independent Sage issued a seven-point plan to ‘suppress infection and reduce disruption’ to the British economy that includes:
- Increased efforts to promote vaccine uptake among all age group and especially among ethnic minorities.
- Installing and/or upgrading ventilation/air filtration in all public buildings and schools.
- Provision of free lateral flow tests.
- Financial and other support for all workers to self-isolate if infected.
- Increased support for the equitable global provision of vaccines.
With deafening silence from the trade unions and open collaboration from the Labour Party, there is no pressure on the government to take any action whatsoever.
Reduced immunity from infection
An estimated 86.4% of the population have been infected at least once, giving a total of 69.3 million infections according to the University of Cambridge’s MRC Biostatistics Unit (15 July 2022). 43.5 million infections (63% of all UK infections during the pandemic) have occurred since 1 December 2021 ie the Omicron era. 30% of all infections are now re-infections. Before Omicron re-infections accounted for 1% of total infections. Getting reinfected increases your chances of severe morbidity and mortality. A recent study, based on US Department of Veteran Affairs data, has shown that reinfection ‘adds additional non-trivial risk’ of death, hospitalisation and adverse health outcomes to both vaccinated and unvaccinated people, with the ‘cumulative risks of repeated infection increasing in a graded fashion according to the number of infections’ (17 July 2022).
The current wave is being driven by the Omicron variant sublineage BA.5, which emerged in South Africa in January 2022. According to Eric Topol of the Scripps Institute, BA.5 is the ‘worst version of the virus that we’ve seen with immune escape, already extensive, and enhanced transmissibility, well beyond Omicron (BA.1)’. Travellers arriving in Britain are not required to take a coronavirus test or show proof of vaccination. Visitors who have symptoms or contract Covid aren’t required to self-isolate, hence any variant can reach or leave Britain to anywhere in the world within hours. The BA.5 variant is now responsible for 80% of positive tests in the UK where tests are still being done.
BA.1 itself already reduces three-dose vaccine effectiveness against severe disease from 95% (against Delta) to 80%, which falls to 55% after three months. The effectiveness of two doses is down to 41% after nine months. Several studies have shown that BA.5 is three to four times more resistant to antibodies from vaccines than BA.1 or BA.2, and 21 times more resistant than the original Wuhan strain. Latest research also shows immunity post-infection may last only 28 days before reinfection can occur with BA.5.
Variant whack-a-mole
New studies show that adults over 50 years old, who received two Covid vaccine boosters (ie four shots) had four times lower risk of dying from Covid-19, compared to people who received one booster; and a 29 times lower risk of dying from Covid-19 than people who were unvaccinated. But studies also show that protection gained from a fourth booster dose wanes even faster than previous boosters.
Hence, the capitalists’ only strategy, which rests on chasing after the latest variant with boosters, is a disastrous strategy. 20% of the British population, mostly children but including three million adults, remain unvaccinated. Our capitalists are even unable to vaccinate the at-risk populations: 20% of over 75s have still not received the March 2022 ‘spring booster’ (fourth dose). Like a dog chasing a bus, we’ll never catch the latest variant, due to criminally high levels of virus prevalence. The WHO has encouraged vaccine manufacturers to develop variant-specific Covid-19 vaccines and in June data on vaccines based on BA.1 was presented. It took seven months to test the BA.1 booster. By the time it is rolled out BA.1 will be extinct, overtaken by other variants. The FDA in June advised manufacturers to add a BA.4/BA.5 spike protein component to new Omicron-adapted vaccines for a rollout in the US in October 2022. According to Topol, ‘variant chasing is a flawed approach. By the time a BA.5 vaccine booster is potentially available, who knows what will be the predominant strain?’ We are not yet back to immunological square one but we are not far off. The more we allow the virus to spread unchecked, the more likely a variant will emerge that renders vaccine protection useless. There is no technological way out of this capitalist mess.
Charles Chinweizu
FIGHT RACISM! FIGHT IMPERIALISM! 289 August/September 2022
