As we go to press, there is as yet no resolution to the crisis that has engulfed Kenya. More than 1,000 people have died in the fighting that followed the disputed result of presidential elections on 27 December. The incumbent President, Mwai Kibaki, has claimed victory and has used police and troops to quell opposition; meanwhile his opponent in the election, Raila Odinga, has launched protest mobilisations in an effort to have the result annulled. Although it is almost certain that Kibaki rigged the election, Odinga is no representative of the poor and oppressed: he is a multi-millionaire, and his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is modelled on the similarly-named movement in the Ukraine which received heavy backing from imperialism. He was also, for a time, a minister in Kibaki’s government.
Much of the violence has taken on an ethnic character: Kibaki is from the Kikuyu, a backbone of the Mau Mau liberation struggle of the 1950s against British colonial occupation. Odinga is Luo; his father, Oginga Odinga, was vice-President to Jomo Kenyatta in the first post-independence government in 1963. Together they were regarded as safe pairs of hands by the British to manage a neo-colonial settlement following the brutal crushing of the Mau Mau. To this day Britain remains the largest foreign investor in Kenya, with 60 companies having operations in the country worth about £1.5 billion; US investments are £150 million. Although the Chinese are seeking oil deals with the Kenyan government, their investments in the country are worth a mere £25 million. Kenya is the 20th poorest country in the world: 56% of its population live in absolute poverty, whilst annual average per capita income is £350.
The struggle between the two leaders is currently in stalemate. In simultaneous elections, Odinga’s ODM won 99 out of 210 seats in the Kenyan parliament, whilst Kibaki’s PNU won only 43. This in itself casts doubt on Kibaki’s claim to have won the presidential vote, claiming a majority of 230,000 out of 10 million votes cast. Odinga is using his parliamentary position to organise boycotts, demonstrations and other forms of protest. As president, Kibaki controls the police and army, and he is prepared to use them ruthlessly. The US is alarmed at the situation: ‘For the eastern portion of Africa, Kenya is critical’ according to retired Marine Lt General Michael DeLong, former deputy commander of US Central Command, responsible for US military operations in the area. Kenya has allowed the US to use bases in its efforts to re-establish control of the Horn of Africa, and its army is active in various peace-keeping forces supporting US policy. ‘In that region, they are a very competent army’, according to DeLong. At present, however, efforts at mediation involving Ugandan President Musaveni – seen as a Kibaki supporter – on the one hand, and former UN General Secretary Kofi Annan on the other, have yet to bear any fruit.
FRFI 201 February / March 2008
