Labour’s disastrous performance in the 7 May elections has persuaded its MPs that Sir Keir Starmer has to go. With more than 100 MPs supporting a leadership contest, and potential challengers emerging from the woodwork, it is only a matter of time before he is replaced. Whoever wins, Labour will continue its support for Israeli genocidal terror, the merciless attacks on migrants, refugees and asylum seekers, and on working class living standards. Starmer has to go, because he has made too many missteps, and appointing the thrice-disgraced Lord Peter Mandelson as US ambassador was the final straw.
The results – Labour and Tory wipe-out
With 5,066 local authority seats up for grabs, Reform UK won 1,491 while Labour lost 1,496 and ended up with just 1,068 councillors. The Tories were also big losers, shedding 563 councillors and retaining just 801. Meanwhile the Greens won 587 seats, an overall gain of 411. Nationally, Labour lost control of 38 councils and the Tories six, while Reform UK gained 14 and the Greens five. In London, where the Greens had a net gain of 248 seats, Labour had a net loss of 395, ceding control in 10 out of 21 boroughs it had previously led, three of them to the Greens.
There were simultaneous elections to the Welsh Senedd and the Scottish Parliament. In Wales, Plaid Cymru got 35% of the vote and Reform 29% while Labour slumped to a mere 11%. This was reflected in the seat distribution with 43 for Plaid Cymru, 34 for Reform, nine for Labour with seven for the Tories. In Scotland, the Scottish National Party (SNP) remained the largest party, ending with 58 MSPs. Labour lost five and ended up with 17 MSPs, but the Tories were the bigger losers, down from 31 MSPs to 12. The real winners were Reform with 17 MSPs and the Greens with 15.
Reform’s electoral base
Neither the Reform nor the Green results were a surprise. Swathes of the petit bourgeoisie – shopkeepers, small business owners, landlords – switched from the Tories to Reform. Analysing data on voting patterns, The Guardian concluded that educational achievement was a key factor underpinning voting patterns:
‘Reform had almost 40% of the vote in wards where less than 40% of people had two or more A-levels – far more than any other party…Meanwhile, fewer than 8% of people voted Reform in areas where more than 70% of people had at least two A-levels.’
Presented in such a bald way these figures are misleading. The reality is firstly, that elderly people, particularly those above pension-age, vote in far greater proportion and numbers in elections than young people, and this age profile is the most important factor that underpins educational achievement.
Put simply, a far smaller proportion of today’s pensioners would have been to university or completed their A-levels 40 to 50 years ago. But many would have been able to take advantage of the 1980s Tory right-to-buy policies and now have full ownership of their house and an occupational pension on top of their state pension. In other words, they have a material stake in the system which they want to see protected against those they see as threatening it – benefit claimants and migrants and refugees. Their political home lies with Reform and its openly racist appeal.
Greens and graduates
Just over 50% of those aged under 30 have a degree or equivalent. This does not immediately place them outside the working class; most will have no choice other than wage labour under ever more punitive conditions. They will often be over-qualified for the jobs they do get and pay exorbitant rents for house shares or even room shares and have an ever-diminishing prospect of home ownership.
The Guardian notes that ‘Greens received an average of just 13% of votes in areas where fewer than one in 10 people rent. That rose to 23% in areas where at least 40% of people rent.’ In every way, capitalism offers this layer no future – other than one of war, environmental destruction, racism and poverty. A substantial proportion voted for this seemingly radical option, joining Muslims who voted Green in significant numbers because of leader Zack Polanski’s claimed support for Palestinian freedom.
The left did not exist in these elections. Trade Union and Socialist Coalition fielded 288 candidates, hardly any of whom got more than 3% and only two exceeded 10%. The moribund Your Party stood no candidates on its own account. The mass of the working class were as ever indifferent: turnout ranged from 40-45% inside London, dropping to 30-35% outside. Despite the importance the mainstream media and the left attached to these elections, the turnout was only up about five percentage points on last year’s.
No change whoever is Labour leader
A thoroughly discredited Labour government will be rudderless while potential challengers to Starmer such as Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham and former Health Secretary Wes Streeting jockey for position. Like Streeting, Burnham is pro-Zionist. He says he will stick with Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s fiscal policy rules and also made a point of endorsing Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s brutal assault on the rights of asylum seekers, refugees and migrants. However, he has to win the Makerfield by-election on 18 June to become a candidate. Meanwhile, the ruling class will be putting Reform to the test to see if it can become a reliable replacement for Labour when it may be called on to accelerate the assault on the working class.
Robert Clough
