Gyanendra, the dictatorial king of Nepal and self-proclaimed reincarnation of Hindu god Vishnu is finding himself increasingly isolated as the insurgency against his brutal rule has spread from the countryside into the cities. Over the last two months there have been daily demonstrations in Kathmandu and other cities by thousands of students and workers demanding that he meet with the main political parties to sack the Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa and create a government of national unity.
The king conceded the first demand, sacking Thapa on 6 May 2004. He was unpopular and expendable, and could be easily replaced by another loyal stooge. But the king has yet to compromise on bringing about a political consensus and entering into serious talks with the five main opposition parties.
He is though in an untenable situation. Ultimately his only chance for survival will be to relinquish some of his powers to the democratic bourgeois forces in the cities. His rule only continues because he has enjoyed the backing of the imperialist powers which have financed his regime. His ever-loyal Royal Nepalese Army has also been invigorated with up-to-date weaponry, including two spy planes provided by Britain and high-tech surveillance equipment from Israel. But coming to an agreement with the five main political parties, in particular the Nepali Congress and the opportunist Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist) will be a political necessity if the king wishes to survive.
The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) has agreed to enter into discussions again with all political factions in an attempt to create a Constituent Assembly. Following the resignation of Thapa, CPN(M) leader Prachanda proposed the need to resume roundtable talks with the political parties, the king, civil society and the UN. It is still very unlikely that the king will sit down at the negotiating table with the Maoists. But the willingness of the CPN(M) to negotiate, and the increasing political turmoil, may force the king’s hand and lead him to conciliate with the bourgeois forces.
Imperialism is also becoming increasingly worried by the escalating insurgency and is pressing the king to seek dialogue in order to contain the situation. Two states essentially exist within Nepal – the countryside and the cities. The countryside is in the hands of the CPN(M) which, despite heavy losses, has recently consolidated control in its strongholds. It has just announced the formation of eight of the nine autonomous regional governments they want to establish in the country in preparation for the take-over of the central government in Kathmandu.
The West has also tied Nepal into the neo-liberal order by recently making it the latest member of the World Trade Organisation. This has coincided with the World Bank’s decision to withdraw funding for a food-for-work programme which could mean starvation for more than 50,000 people. Imperialism is mounting a two-pronged attack on the revolution – one prong is a call for increasing intervention amongst the political forces, and the other is to escalate the war against the peasants. It is a war which includes US troops fighting alongside the RNA to terrorise villages and a war by the WTO and WB orchestrated attrition to stunt the social and welfare programmes now underway in the liberated areas.
The defeat of the fascist BJP in the recent Indian elections has reduced the immediate likelihood of a violent Indian intervention in Nepal. Coupled with the fact that the imperialists are bogged down in the Middle East, this could provide the Nepalese people with the necessary breathing space to carry their revolution forward.
Andrew Alexander
FRFI 179 June / July 2004
